Transpacific trade is expected to rebound following a new 90-day tariff agreement between the US and China. Starting Wednesday, both countries will reduce tariffs to 10%, with the US maintaining a 20% fentanyl tariff. China will also remove various countermeasures, including sanctions on US companies and export restrictions on rare metals.

While the agreement is temporary, industry experts believe it marks the beginning of a longer-term resolution. Ecommerce is expected to lead the trade resurgence, though overall shipping volumes may see a short-term lull due to high inventory levels built up in anticipation of tariffs.

Retailers and importers are cautiously optimistic. Some are already moving cargo, expecting a sharp, condensed peak season aligned with the 90-day window. Freighter capacity from China to the US has surged 60% in the past day, indicating renewed activity.

However, uncertainties remain. Ecommerce by mail remains heavily taxed, and economic factors—such as a potential US recession or tax reforms—will influence demand. Despite these challenges, demand for low-cost Chinese goods remains strong, and the outlook for ecommerce-driven freight is positive.